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As we near the end of the year, there is a glimmer of hope: the COVID-19 vaccine has arrived in many states across the country and there is finally, after months of discussion, a distribution plan in place to get citizens vaccinated as soon as possible.
We decided to take a look at the data regarding the highest priority groups. Our goal was to take the national definitions provided by the CDC and determine which states will have the highest number of potential vaccine candidates. We used STI: PopStats demographics, lifestyles and occupational data to estimate what you see below.
Knowing this information is both interesting and helpful for businesses making decisions about the people they serve. A couple of notes first:
- The Centers for Disease Control proposed group for phase one of the vaccination includes the following groups:
- Phase 1a: Healthcare personnel, which includes those working in hospitals, long-term care facilities, outpatient facilities, home healthcare, pharmacies, EMS, and public health.
- Phase 1b:
- Essential workers (non-healthcare), which includes police, firefighters, those in education, transportation, food and agriculture, food service, etc.)
- Adults with high-risk medical conditions (e.g. diabetes, cancer, sever obesity/obesity, chronic kidney conditions, etc.) and adults over 65 years old.
An interesting discovery is that these buckets contain a lot of people. In some states, essential workers make up a huge number—like the District of Columbia with 45.9% of the population considered “essential workers” and Illinois with 34.1%. Adults with high-risk medical conditions also make up big numbers, with West Virginia having 43.5% of the population in the category, 43.4% in Arkansas and 42.5% in Kentucky.
That said, here is a rundown of the % of each state’s population that is part of “phase 1a,” healthcare personnel:
| State | Population | Healthcare Personnel % of Pop |
| Alabama | 4,977,157 | 5.2% |
| Alaska | 732,375 | 6.7% |
| Arizona | 7,347,806 | 6.0% |
| Arkansas | 3,074,829 | 5.8% |
| California | 39,472,782 | 5.3% |
| Colorado | 5,780,410 | 6.1% |
| Connecticut | 3,616,645 | 7.7% |
| Delaware | 981,134 | 6.8% |
| District of Columbia | 705,525 | 9.7% |
| Florida | 21,401,639 | 5.8% |
| Georgia | 10,646,018 | 6.0% |
| Hawaii | 1,428,007 | 5.5% |
| Idaho | 1,825,188 | 5.5% |
| Illinois | 12,809,796 | 7.4% |
| Indiana | 6,805,740 | 6.6% |
| Iowa | 3,199,688 | 6.2% |
| Kansas | 2,954,288 | 6.7% |
| Kentucky | 4,511,048 | 6.0% |
| Louisiana | 4,700,778 | 5.8% |
| Maine | 1,374,861 | 8.2% |
| Maryland | 6,067,910 | 6.9% |
| Massachusetts | 6,896,995 | 7.9% |
| Michigan | 10,062,831 | 6.5% |
| Minnesota | 5,676,276 | 8.5% |
| Mississippi | 3,028,431 | 4.9% |
| Missouri | 6,219,747 | 5.8% |
| Montana | 1,087,574 | 5.3% |
| Nebraska | 1,958,185 | 6.4% |
| Nevada | 3,088,157 | 6.5% |
| New Hampshire | 1,383,333 | 8.2% |
| New Jersey | 8,951,239 | 7.4% |
| New Mexico | 2,126,198 | 5.2% |
| New York | 19,666,498 | 8.3% |
| North Carolina | 10,569,850 | 6.0% |
| North Dakota | 778,960 | 7.7% |
| Ohio | 11,794,198 | 7.1% |
| Oklahoma | 3,978,456 | 5.7% |
| Oregon | 4,212,726 | 6.8% |
| Pennsylvania | 12,932,237 | 7.8% |
| Rhode Island | 1,060,816 | 7.8% |
| South Carolina | 5,213,132 | 4.9% |
| South Dakota | 893,442 | 6.2% |
| Tennessee | 6,885,821 | 5.9% |
| Texas | 29,152,589 | 5.4% |
| Utah | 3,254,816 | 5.0% |
| Vermont | 643,758 | 7.4% |
| Virginia | 8,619,074 | 5.7% |
| Washington | 7,610,906 | 7.0% |
| West Virginia | 1,823,941 | 6.0% |
| Wisconsin | 5,888,757 | 6.8% |
| Wyoming | 590,607 | 5.5% |
And here's the % of each state’s population that is part of “phase 1b,” essential workers, adults with high-risk medical conditions, and adults over 65 years old:
| State | Population | Essential Workers % of Pop | High Risk % of Pop | Age 65+ % of Pop |
| Alabama | 4,977,157 | 23.7% | 38.6% | 17.4% |
| Alaska | 732,375 | 29.0% | 24.8% | 14.3% |
| Arizona | 7,347,806 | 22.6% | 30.2% | 18.3% |
| Arkansas | 3,074,829 | 25.0% | 43.4% | 17.5% |
| California | 39,472,782 | 25.3% | 29.7% | 15.4% |
| Colorado | 5,780,410 | 25.7% | 23.0% | 16.1% |
| Connecticut | 3,616,645 | 25.6% | 22.7% | 18.9% |
| Delaware | 981,134 | 21.7% | 32.5% | 19.2% |
| District of Columbia | 705,525 | 45.9% | 22.0% | 14.4% |
| Florida | 21,401,639 | 21.2% | 36.2% | 21.8% |
| Georgia | 10,646,018 | 29.1% | 32.5% | 14.4% |
| Hawaii | 1,428,007 | 30.7% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| Idaho | 1,825,188 | 21.1% | 27.6% | 16.5% |
| Illinois | 12,809,796 | 34.1% | 29.5% | 16.2% |
| Indiana | 6,805,740 | 30.4% | 34.9% | 16.6% |
| Iowa | 3,199,688 | 29.0% | 24.7% | 18.4% |
| Kansas | 2,954,288 | 30.4% | 27.7% | 16.7% |
| Kentucky | 4,511,048 | 26.4% | 42.5% | 17.0% |
| Louisiana | 4,700,778 | 23.0% | 37.1% | 15.8% |
| Maine | 1,374,861 | 23.8% | 28.1% | 21.5% |
| Maryland | 6,067,910 | 25.6% | 26.3% | 16.9% |
| Massachusetts | 6,896,995 | 28.4% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| Michigan | 10,062,831 | 24.4% | 29.7% | 18.3% |
| Minnesota | 5,676,276 | 30.0% | 21.8% | 17.3% |
| Mississippi | 3,028,431 | 24.2% | 42.1% | 16.0% |
| Missouri | 6,219,747 | 26.1% | 35.3% | 17.5% |
| Montana | 1,087,574 | 21.9% | 27.3% | 20.4% |
| Nebraska | 1,958,185 | 28.4% | 25.6% | 16.8% |
| Nevada | 3,088,157 | 26.7% | 33.5% | 16.5% |
| New Hampshire | 1,383,333 | 29.0% | 24.1% | 19.6% |
| New Jersey | 8,951,239 | 29.5% | 30.6% | 17.7% |
| New Mexico | 2,126,198 | 20.6% | 36.1% | 18.0% |
| New York | 19,666,498 | 26.8% | 29.0% | 17.6% |
| North Carolina | 10,569,850 | 26.5% | 32.0% | 16.8% |
| North Dakota | 778,960 | 29.4% | 25.6% | 18.4% |
| Ohio | 11,794,198 | 27.5% | 33.4% | 17.9% |
| Oklahoma | 3,978,456 | 26.0% | 34.8% | 16.4% |
| Oregon | 4,212,726 | 24.5% | 28.5% | 19.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 12,932,237 | 26.6% | 30.5% | 19.3% |
| Rhode Island | 1,060,816 | 28.8% | 28.3% | 18.7% |
| South Carolina | 5,213,132 | 23.8% | 33.3% | 18.2% |
| South Dakota | 893,442 | 28.4% | 27.9% | 17.9% |
| Tennessee | 6,885,821 | 23.8% | 36.7% | 17.3% |
| Texas | 29,152,589 | 25.2% | 34.6% | 13.7% |
| Utah | 3,254,816 | 25.7% | 22.3% | 11.5% |
| Vermont | 643,758 | 28.3% | 23.6% | 21.0% |
| Virginia | 8,619,074 | 26.8% | 28.5% | 16.6% |
| Washington | 7,610,906 | 26.1% | 27.1% | 17.5% |
| West Virginia | 1,823,941 | 20.4% | 43.5% | 20.4% |
| Wisconsin | 5,888,757 | 29.8% | 26.4% | 18.1% |
| Wyoming | 590,607 | 26.1% | 26.8% | 17.9% |
The coronavirus vaccine will allow states to reduce restrictions, send children back to school, and get life back to normal. Knowing how many people will receive this vaccine in the states where you operate can help you make intelligent, data-driven decisions.
For suggestions for future data studies, contact the SiteSeer team.
