A Look at Who Will Get the COVID-19 Vaccine First (by the Numbers)

Posted by Sam Lowder on Dec 21, 2020 6:00:00 AM

As we near the end of the year, there is a glimmer of hope: the COVID-19 vaccine has arrived in many states across the country and there is finally, after months of discussion, a distribution plan in place to get citizens vaccinated as soon as possible.

We decided to take a look at the data regarding the highest priority groups. Our goal was to take the national definitions provided by the CDC and determine which states will have the highest number of potential vaccine candidates. We used STI: PopStats demographics, lifestyles and occupational data to estimate what you see below. 

Knowing this information is both interesting and helpful for businesses making decisions about the people they serve. A couple of notes first:

  • The Centers for Disease Control proposed group for phase one of the vaccination includes the following groups:
  • Phase 1a: Healthcare personnel, which includes those working in hospitals, long-term care facilities, outpatient facilities, home healthcare, pharmacies, EMS, and public health.
  • Phase 1b:
    • Essential workers (non-healthcare), which includes police, firefighters, those in education, transportation, food and agriculture, food service, etc.)
    • Adults with high-risk medical conditions (e.g. diabetes, cancer, sever obesity/obesity, chronic kidney conditions, etc.) and adults over 65 years old.

An interesting discovery is that these buckets contain a lot of people. In some states, essential workers make up a huge number—like the District of Columbia with 45.9% of the population considered “essential workers” and Illinois with 34.1%. Adults with high-risk medical conditions also make up big numbers, with West Virginia having 43.5% of the population in the category, 43.4% in Arkansas and 42.5% in Kentucky.

That said, here is a rundown of the % of each state’s population that is part of “phase 1a,” healthcare personnel:

State Population Healthcare Personnel % of Pop
Alabama 4,977,157 5.2%
Alaska 732,375 6.7%
Arizona 7,347,806 6.0%
Arkansas 3,074,829 5.8%
California 39,472,782 5.3%
Colorado 5,780,410 6.1%
Connecticut 3,616,645 7.7%
Delaware 981,134 6.8%
District of Columbia 705,525 9.7%
Florida 21,401,639 5.8%
Georgia 10,646,018 6.0%
Hawaii 1,428,007 5.5%
Idaho 1,825,188 5.5%
Illinois 12,809,796 7.4%
Indiana 6,805,740 6.6%
Iowa 3,199,688 6.2%
Kansas 2,954,288 6.7%
Kentucky 4,511,048 6.0%
Louisiana 4,700,778 5.8%
Maine 1,374,861 8.2%
Maryland 6,067,910 6.9%
Massachusetts 6,896,995 7.9%
Michigan 10,062,831 6.5%
Minnesota 5,676,276 8.5%
Mississippi 3,028,431 4.9%
Missouri 6,219,747 5.8%
Montana 1,087,574 5.3%
Nebraska 1,958,185 6.4%
Nevada 3,088,157 6.5%
New Hampshire 1,383,333 8.2%
New Jersey 8,951,239 7.4%
New Mexico 2,126,198 5.2%
New York 19,666,498 8.3%
North Carolina 10,569,850 6.0%
North Dakota 778,960 7.7%
Ohio 11,794,198 7.1%
Oklahoma 3,978,456 5.7%
Oregon 4,212,726 6.8%
Pennsylvania 12,932,237 7.8%
Rhode Island 1,060,816 7.8%
South Carolina 5,213,132 4.9%
South Dakota 893,442 6.2%
Tennessee 6,885,821 5.9%
Texas 29,152,589 5.4%
Utah 3,254,816 5.0%
Vermont 643,758 7.4%
Virginia 8,619,074 5.7%
Washington 7,610,906 7.0%
West Virginia 1,823,941 6.0%
Wisconsin 5,888,757 6.8%
Wyoming 590,607 5.5%

And here's the % of each state’s population that is part of “phase 1b,” essential workers, adults with high-risk medical conditions, and adults over 65 years old: 

State Population Essential Workers % of Pop High Risk % of Pop Age 65+ % of Pop
Alabama 4,977,157 23.7% 38.6% 17.4%
Alaska 732,375 29.0% 24.8% 14.3%
Arizona 7,347,806 22.6% 30.2% 18.3%
Arkansas 3,074,829 25.0% 43.4% 17.5%
California 39,472,782 25.3% 29.7% 15.4%
Colorado 5,780,410 25.7% 23.0% 16.1%
Connecticut 3,616,645 25.6% 22.7% 18.9%
Delaware 981,134 21.7% 32.5% 19.2%
District of Columbia 705,525 45.9% 22.0% 14.4%
Florida 21,401,639 21.2% 36.2% 21.8%
Georgia 10,646,018 29.1% 32.5% 14.4%
Hawaii 1,428,007 30.7% 27.0% 19.5%
Idaho 1,825,188 21.1% 27.6% 16.5%
Illinois 12,809,796 34.1% 29.5% 16.2%
Indiana 6,805,740 30.4% 34.9% 16.6%
Iowa 3,199,688 29.0% 24.7% 18.4%
Kansas 2,954,288 30.4% 27.7% 16.7%
Kentucky 4,511,048 26.4% 42.5% 17.0%
Louisiana 4,700,778 23.0% 37.1% 15.8%
Maine 1,374,861 23.8% 28.1% 21.5%
Maryland 6,067,910 25.6% 26.3% 16.9%
Massachusetts 6,896,995 28.4% 22.7% 18.1%
Michigan 10,062,831 24.4% 29.7% 18.3%
Minnesota 5,676,276 30.0% 21.8% 17.3%
Mississippi 3,028,431 24.2% 42.1% 16.0%
Missouri 6,219,747 26.1% 35.3% 17.5%
Montana 1,087,574 21.9% 27.3% 20.4%
Nebraska 1,958,185 28.4% 25.6% 16.8%
Nevada 3,088,157 26.7% 33.5% 16.5%
New Hampshire 1,383,333 29.0% 24.1% 19.6%
New Jersey 8,951,239 29.5% 30.6% 17.7%
New Mexico 2,126,198 20.6% 36.1% 18.0%
New York 19,666,498 26.8% 29.0% 17.6%
North Carolina 10,569,850 26.5% 32.0% 16.8%
North Dakota 778,960 29.4% 25.6% 18.4%
Ohio 11,794,198 27.5% 33.4% 17.9%
Oklahoma 3,978,456 26.0% 34.8% 16.4%
Oregon 4,212,726 24.5% 28.5% 19.1%
Pennsylvania 12,932,237 26.6% 30.5% 19.3%
Rhode Island 1,060,816 28.8% 28.3% 18.7%
South Carolina 5,213,132 23.8% 33.3% 18.2%
South Dakota 893,442 28.4% 27.9% 17.9%
Tennessee 6,885,821 23.8% 36.7% 17.3%
Texas 29,152,589 25.2% 34.6% 13.7%
Utah 3,254,816 25.7% 22.3% 11.5%
Vermont 643,758 28.3% 23.6% 21.0%
Virginia 8,619,074 26.8% 28.5% 16.6%
Washington 7,610,906 26.1% 27.1% 17.5%
West Virginia 1,823,941 20.4% 43.5% 20.4%
Wisconsin 5,888,757 29.8% 26.4% 18.1%
Wyoming 590,607 26.1% 26.8% 17.9%

The coronavirus vaccine will allow states to reduce restrictions, send children back to school, and get life back to normal. Knowing how many people will receive this vaccine in the states where you operate can help you make intelligent, data-driven decisions.

For suggestions for future data studies, contact the SiteSeer team. 

Contact the SiteSeer team

Topics: Retail Data Analysis, Data Study, Coronavirus

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